Thursday, August 17, 2006

Looking bad for November

The prospects of an anti-GOP wave in November are now clear, the Washington Post reports. The numbers are huge: 40% disadvantage on the "right track/wrong track" question.

Karl Rove has to see those numbers and say, "Wait a minute -- unemployment's under 5 percent and the Democrats are promising to raise taxes ...." But of course:

1. THE WAR is hurting, period.

2. IMMIGRATION probably explains a lot of those "wrong track" numbers. The president's insistence on "guest worker" amnesty totally pisses off the Republican base.

3. THE MEDIA has been unrelentingly doom-and-gloom for the past 18 months.

4. MOST REPUBLICAN CANDIDATES have not yet launched their fall campaigns, while Democrats have been hammering away for months.

It is important to remember that Republicans have been down before. Kerry was leading bigtime for most of 2004, but ended up losing. So this could yet turn around. But it's not going to be easy.

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